Mixed-Economic-Forecast

December 7,  2015

By Seabreeze Enterprises LLC

  • Let us call it right now! Finally we see the Fed raising rates .25% and at the same time talking about uncertainties in the year to come with the suggestion of additional increases throughout the year.
  • The above being said, we predict no additional increases in the first half of 2016 simply because this 1st increase is not warranted.
  • The elephant in the global economic room is China and when their bubble bursts it will impact everyone wiping out $ Billions.
  • We do not see any end to the turmoil in the Mid-east and Africa which will reduce the sale of goods into these regions.
  • With so many oil exporting countries dependent on oil-based revenue streams we see these countries all pumping at maximum levels to steal market share from each other. That means no reduction from Saudi, Iraq, Iran, Russia, and Venezuela. We were one of the only entities, last summer, predicting oil in the high $30’s and now we see a likelihood that WTI could actually hit $20.
  • While on the subject of prices look for Gold to go below $1100 next quarter.
  • The never ending barrage of media reports on the 2016 Presidential election is sure to bore any voter with an ounce of interest. Our commentary on this from earlier this year remains the same with a Clinton-Trump contest. That said the candidate with the best answers and thoughts seems to be Bernie Sanders.
  • While on the subject of politics and a few weeks after the terrorist attack in Paris watch candidates push the fear-card to justify immigration control, homeland security expansion, gun legislation and increased domestic surveillance. More governmental involvement is always a politician’s favorite solution. Israel, with probably the best anti-terrorist structure, has proven over 50 years that random terrorist attacks cannot be prevented.
  • Watch more long-standing retail entities with big-box infrastructure see their sales eroded by internet sales.
  • We expect the press to report on an upbeat attitude held by consumers citing holiday sales being improved and vehicle sales at new highs. Don’t be fooled by the numbers. In a normal world consumers would be buying homes and durables. Instead they have given up, will spend their limited funds on consumables and junk and only new vehicles because of zero interest and/or 72 month financing.
  • We haven’t mentioned war in over a year and the concern is that turmoil around the globe just might create a reason for our war-hawks to bring us in as global police. Yeah, same old story, onlookers at first and then combat. When the economy really sucks war is always an answer. Don’t know if the country can afford another jump into such a fray.
  • Our advice is cautionary. Get out of the stock market it is going to tank soon. If at all possible downsize and then save, save, save. If you have a secure job work hard to keep it. – – – Merry Christmas & have a Happy & Prosperous New Year.