September 30, 2015

By Seabreeze Enterprises LLC

Mixed-Economic-Forecast

  • Economists and oil experts forecast that oil will rebound to the $70 dollar range. It has gone back up a bit the past few weeks we expect to see it ultimately sinking to $40 or lower before the Christmas holidays.
  • 2016 is going to be the year where oil industry consolidation will impact too big to fail oil entities.
  • Gold will continue to drop and perhaps go below 1100 by year-end.
  • Predicted cutbacks in China and Europe will cause commodity metal prices to sink even lower this year with copper reaching a four year low of less than half of where it was in 2012.
  • As stated months ago the only place to be for most in retail is mobile. The big box players like Walmart, Target & Macy’s will be dealing with issues they have never encountered with the latter actually wishing Donald Trump would come back to help boost sales.
  • New housing will not see the growth that many big builders kept talking about this summer and we suspect that the peak of activity has already been reached this year largely fueled by those able to buy luxury product.
  • Nearly everyone is predicting that the Fed will modestly raise interest rates this fall. We do not see that happening this year due to a shaky world economy with emphasis on the neglected Mideast turmoil which will become a global problem later this year.
  • With a Presidential election one year away no meaningful legislation will be coming out of Washington which puts the nation in a holding pattern while everyday Americans see their purchasing power erode. Sure the dollar is strong but that strength is meaningless when domestic price increases across the board reduce the value of the average pay-check.
  • The governments cost of living “basket of goods” is out of synch with reality no different than the numbers manipulated for bogus unemployment rates.
  • Just as twelve million people were foreclosed upon when their incomes could not match the cost of home ownership we will begin to see more and more cities where municipal revenue can no longer cover the costs (a good amount of which is debt interest and pension give-aways from the 90’s). That means increased taxes and less services – so much for the city life.
  • Not to be pessimistic but household wealth is down, employment is a joke, taxes are on the rise, healthcare is less than adequate, education scores are pathetic, everyone’s debt is uncomfortable, especially student debt and crime is rampant in most large cities. We almost sound like a third-world nation.