June 30, 2015
- Economists and oil experts keep forecasting oil stability in the $70 dollar range. We continue to maintain an opposite viewpoint based on a decrease in demand due to a global economic slowdown combined with an over supply of product. As predicted late last year we fully expect oil to be in the $30 range later this year and perhaps lower.
- We were also right on Gold and see it becoming less important and floundering in the low $1100’s.
- Predicted cutbacks in China and Europe will cause commodity metal prices to sink lower this year with Copper and Aluminum having a significant decline.
- Our prediction that the Comcast merger would not occur was right-on. The internet and video streaming is and will continue to be the cause for reduced volume in hardwired communications. Mobile & streaming is where it is at.
- Automobile sales will continue at a healthy yet modest rate as long as no interest financing and attractive leasing packages are made available. Everyone is keeping cars longer. Many auto purchases were deferred during the recession to where a new car was actually needed. That being accomplished in 2014-2015 it is likely that the buying (or replacement) spree will peak this year with a slow down due to overall economic uncertainty.
- Fuel prices will go back down to record lows as crude goes below $40 / barrel. That extra cash won’t be going for capital items and instead it will help families, to a degree, cope with less buying power.
- Once again we predicted that the 1% would star cutting back and that is impacting luxury sales as well as everyone else. The name of the game is internet purchasing at discount. We see retailers coming up with lower-priced products. The problem is delivering quality at the lower price.Those working out of brick and mortar facilities better fear Amazon because they would be delivering call girls if it was allowed.
- Government and politicians continues to ignore what most think is common sense. Screw ups in the VA, IRS, EPA. SS and elsewhere are making everyone question the rationale for keeping such a bloated dysfunctional structure. The time is right for someone to shake the political tree. The announced candidates don’t have a clue as to what America wants and needs.
- Finally, crime is everywhere. Not petty thievery but daily shootings and assassinations sadly with most being caused by minorities and usually on other minorities. This urban turbulence ignored by politicians will be the root-cause for economic disaster in many of our large cities and it will have a prolonged impact for many generations.